n a groundbreaking agreement, U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky have signed a bilateral deal to jointly invest in Ukraine’s critical minerals and natural resources. The agreement establishes a reconstruction investment fund with joint ownership between the two nations, marking a first-of-its-kind initiative in U.S. foreign policy. Unlike previous proposals, the deal does not assign $500 billion in mineral revenues to the U.S. nor offer a security guarantee for Ukraine. Instead, Kyiv will contribute 50% of all revenues from newly monetized natural resource assets into the fund, excluding existing revenue streams such as Naftogaz and Ukrnafta.
The fund aims to attract private sector investment into Ukraine’s mineral deposits, oil, gas, and infrastructure. However, the success of this initiative is contingent on the interest of private industry and Ukraine’s ability to provide accurate geological data. Despite the potential long-term benefits, the agreement does little to secure Ukraine militarily. The hope is that U.S. financial stakes in Ukraine’s natural resources will encourage continued support for its stability and security.
Experts warn that U.S. mineral security will not see immediate improvements, as mining operations take an average of 18 years and require up to $1 billion per site. Ukraine faces further hurdles, including limited geological data, war-damaged infrastructure, and ongoing security risks. With nearly half of Ukraine’s power generation capacitydestroyed, a major energy infrastructure rebuild is necessary before mining projects can begin.
The deal also highlights Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy. Unlike the Biden administration’s strategy of isolating Russia, Trump has engaged in direct talks with Vladimir Putin while questioning long-term U.S. military aid to Ukraine. This shift raises concerns about U.S. commitments to NATO and European security. The absence of security assurances in the minerals agreement further complicates Ukraine’s economic and political future.
To enhance private investment in high-risk markets like Ukraine, analysts suggest the U.S. Geological Survey expand geological mapping efforts, while the government should boost infrastructure funding and provide financial incentives to Western firms. Effective minerals diplomacy will require tax credits, loan guarantees, and policy tools to counter Chinese and Russian competition in the critical minerals sector.
